Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: November 2021

Our dashboard explores key short-term signposts impacting oil demand, supply, and prices.

January 6, 2022Crude oil prices took a modest hit in November, amid concerns that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 would dampen global demand while OPEC+ continued to increase output. Fluctuations in short-term signposts compared to the prior month include:

Oil prices. Over the last week of November, crude oil spot prices fell in response to expectations that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 could reduce global petroleum demand. Brent crude oil price decreased by USD2.5/bbl on average in November to USD81/bbl and WTI by USD2.3/bbl to USD79.1/bbl
Global oil demand. Global liquids demand increased by 1.2 MMb/d in November to 99.7 MMb/d. Chinese demand saw the largest m-o-m increase of 0.9 MMb/d to 15.6 MMb/d, while European demand saw the largest m-o-m decrease of 0.4 MMb/d to 14.1 MMb/d due to a rise in COVID cases and restrictions
Commercial inventories. Commercial inventories remained steady m-o-m in November (4.4 billion barrels globally), driven by a small decrease in OECD inventory and a small increase in non-OECD inventory
OPEC 10 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 10 production increased by 0.4 MMb/d m-o-m as the bloc continued to increase output. The production increase was mainly driven by Saudi Arabia, where output rose by 0.1 MMb/d m-o-m to 9.9 MMb/d. OPEC 10 output is up by 1.4 MMb/d y-o-y, however still 1.9 MMb/d down compared to pre-COVID levels on November 19
Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production stood at 57.7 MMb/d in November, increasing by 0.7 MMb/d m-o-m. Russia and Canada production saw the largest m-o-m increases of 0.04 MMb/d each
US shale oil production. US shale oil production increased by 0.1 MMb/d m-o-m to 8.2 MMbl/d in November, up by 0.3 MMb/d y-o-y. Although production is still below pre-pandemic levels of >9 MMb/d, US onshore rig count has almost the double y-o-y and was up by 3% m-o-m, indicating rising activity
Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Although production in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya remained steady m-o-m at 4.2 MMb/d, combined output of the three countries is up by 0.8 MMb/d y-o-y
Market sentiment. A surge in COVID-19 infections prompted renewed restrictions across much of Europe, potentially having a negative impact on liquids demand over the coming winter months, already leading to some curbs on international travel. Despite these concerns, OPEC+ agreed to continue to increase output on a monthly basis at the start of December, rolling over its plan to boost production by 400,000 barrels per day by January 2022

Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: November 2021

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